Heisenberged: Bears at Steelers Preview

OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game.  I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time.  I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later.  I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already.  If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.

I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot.  I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.

After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team.  That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked).  New England was defending its title.  That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.

The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem.  The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other.  Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination.  There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there.  Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through.  If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through.  That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.

The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays.  I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him.  If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury.  If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure.  Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense.  He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball.  They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays.  If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence.  Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays.  I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that.  I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk.  That might not happen this season.

The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones.  Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw.  Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6.  If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense.  But, they still don't have enough.  They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense.  Right now, they're playing it safe.  They're playing not to lose.  Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau.  These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.

These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays.  I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team.  Both seasons had similar vibes to them.  Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games).  They needed to develop and gain confidence.

Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10.  Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.

Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play.  They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes.  The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.

I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.

It's a Mess: Steelers at Jets Preview

Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win.  The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired.  As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."

The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going.  All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.

I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened.  They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course.  I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.

I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games.  I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover.  I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.

I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham  or Levi Brown in.  I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.

But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions.  Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.

The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there.  In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.

They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone.  They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense.  They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice.  They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.

They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working.  They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home.  I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.

Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason.  They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go.  They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.