Holy crap. There hasn't been a post on the ol' SteelersNAt blog since August 15th. I would've thought August 26th, but what do I know.
Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.
I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season. They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14. So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek. Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season. And that doesn't make any sense.
What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter). I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.
Consider:
Chris Johnson can break a big play at any time.
Kenny Britt had his first big game against the Steelers and Nate Washington has big play potential (or at least he did at one point and maybe he's still mad that he doesn't play for Pittsburgh anymore).
The Titans defense is young and opportunistic. Better yet, they're young, inexperienced, and undisciplined, so maybe the cornerbacks will jump routes and miss, allowing a big play on the back end. Maybe they'll jump routes and hit, making a big play.
Ben Roethlisberger is quirky and unpredictable. If they start to struggle running the ball early on -- and they probably will -- then Roethlisberger might decide to let it rip.
This year's defense can't possibly be worse at forcing turnovers than last year's... can it?
On the other side of all this is the fact that neither team's offensive line looks like it's all the way together yet. That's a wild card in that it could lead to a lot of big plays -- strip-sacks and whatnot -- or it could lead to a lot of futility and three-and-outs.
The good news is that Tennessee doesn't have a very good team and they're in Year Two of a pretty painful four year rebuilding process. They may be competitive and dangerous eventually, but not now. Their front seven has been repeatedly gutted by free agency and Bernard Pollard might be their best player in the secondary. On offense, Jake Locker is a great athlete, but he's a terrible quarterback. The Steelers tend to feast on terrible quarterbacks. Despite the nice things I said about Britt and Washington, those guys are a couple of oft-injured, wildly inconsistent "upside guys" that keep getting chances because someone is dumb enough to believe that they'll put it all together eventually if they just get enough chances.
Chris Johnson is the guy to fear, even if he's been underwhelming the past two or three seasons. He's still explosive, still super fast, and can still break off a long touchdown at any moment. The Titans are going to feed him the ball because they have no other real option. If he gets enough chances, he'll break a big gain eventually. The Steelers just need to stay focused, maintain their lanes on defense, and practice sound tackling fundamentals.
The Steelers are an average team, but the Titans are a bad team. The fact that Roethlisberger is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the league lifts the Steelers from being below average to just average. If they can't beat Tennessee, then they are a bad team (I don't care if the Titans finish with a winning record, bad teams can get lucky as these same Titans did in 2011).
In order to not embarrass themselves, the Steelers need to win this game. If they can get off to a winning start, they'll enter next week with more confidence -- and they'll need all the help they can get against the Bengals. If they lose this week, they could very well open up the season 0-3. If they split their non-division conference games (home against the Titans, at Miami), go 3-1 against the atrocious AFC East (yes, this means they're going to lose at home to the Patriots; I've accepted it, the sooner you do the better for your sanity), split their division games, and split with their non-conference games (a pretty up-in-the-air NFC North), then they're looking at a 9-7 season.
Maybe they catch some breaks, beat the Dolphins and go 4-2 in the division, that puts them at 11-5.
The X-Factor this season is the guys they've drafted since 2010. There are only four guys on the roster from the 2006-2009 draft classes -- Woodley, Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and David Johnson. There are five players still on the roster from the 2002-2005 draft classes -- Ben, Troy, Keisel, Ike Taylor, and Heath. With no young veterans stepping up -- and the guys from those 2006-2009 classes should all be playing vital roles on the team, making up the core group of talented skill position players -- they have a bunch of old guys that need to keep playing at a high level and really young guys that need to grow up in a hurry. Assuming that the old guard doesn't fall apart this season -- and, aside from Troy missing at least 5-6 games every season with various injuries, it doesn't look like they will fall apart -- then it's up to the 2010-Present draft classes to make up that talent gap and deliver.
If they can deliver in a big way, then you're looking at a 12-4 or 13-3 season. I don't think they're all going to deliver in a big way. I think some of them will make a big leap forward, some of them will be average, and some of them will fall off. When that happens, you're looking at 8-8 or 7-9 or 9-7. If injuries keep mounting and the depth of this team is really tested, then it's a 6-10 or 5-11 situation, but I don't think that's going to happen.
They're an average team and they're going to finish with an average record. They'll do slightly better or worse depending on luck. I've seen so many successful seasons in the last decade or so that I really don't care how well (or not) they do during the regular season. I believe that there's a big enough talent gap between them and the favorites from the AFC that I know they won't advance to (and win) the Super Bowl. If they're not going to win the Super Bowl and are probably going to be average, I just don't want to be bored when it's happening.
It all starts on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and, the good lord willing, it will be exciting.
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